A big change

🌍 Macro & Market News

Ukraine bombed the shit out of Russia in a surprise drone attack (that the Whitehouse wasn’t given notice about).

Tension between the US and China led to mixed results for the S&P (mostly the index dipped but ended with a small increase). Also adding to market troubles was the President raising tariffs on steel and aluminum. I’m guessing he took the “Taco” insult personally and now is lashing out.

I will repeat what I said when I last posted:

It’s just incoherent. It’s just chaos. But it’s still predictable. Trump blustered about something, did something dramatic, the market retracted, he will cower in a week and reverse course, the market will rise. Repeat. Ad naseum. Ad astra. And all this will do will continue to make America look like a unserious place.

📊 Portfolio Impact

I made a big change to my portfolio (and indeed my investment strategy today): I sold PAVE, ROBO, SOXX, and XLE. And I have a limit order to sell GLD when it hit $312. Why? Because all of these have either hit 10% gains since purchased (or 10% losses). In fact, some were nearly 20% gains. I decided the market is too volatile and I’d rather keep the bulk of my funds in cash, then re-purchase those ETFs if/when they drop. In other words, I’m going to swing trade. I’ll sell when I make a good profit, and buy when there’s a a real opportunity. It’ll be hell on taxes but I just simply do not trust the market right now.

I just don’t think the market is reflecting economic realities. A quarter of Americans are now paying for groceries in installments. Groceries. That’s up from 14 percent a year ago. I’ve decided that I’m just going to dip in and out of the market, with my money mostly in a money market fund.

📈 Predictions for 2025-06-03

It should be flat but I’m going to predict the market will go up and GLD will drop.

✅ Review from Yesterday

None made