Another two weeks
🌍 Macro & Market News
In my last post on June 2nd, Ukrain bombed Russia. This last week, Israel bombed Iran. A month or so ago, India and Pakistan were going at it. Good times!
Today is Juneteenth, not that Trump is even going to acknowledge it, and so the markets are closed. But on this wonderful day in American history, our President is letting everyone know he’ll decide on bombing Iran “within the next two weeks”. This is the same time frame he uses for everything he doesn’t have an answer on so take it with a grain of salt.
The market has taken this war poorly. Everything went down except for Gold and Oil (an interesting analogy). Trump actually pulled out of the G7 meeting in Canada, which India was apparently hoping to use to help close a trade deal. Subsequently, INDA and SMIN have retracted a bit. The other news is that on Wednesdy, J. Powell indicated that the Fed would keep rates steady now. Our President took the news gracefully!
📊 Portfolio Impact
Nothing happened today due to the market being closed.
📈 Predictions for 2025-06-20
Equities will drop due to the fighting, which seems to be escalating. Oil will go up, which I suppose will help my energy ETFs (IXC and maybe ICLN?). I think INDA and SMIN will go down as Trump doesn’t seem to be eager to close a trade deal. Gold should go up, which will help GLD. I’m guessing yields will stay stable, so not much change in BND (unless Trump goes to war).
However I do think the market tends to absorb the bad news pretty quickly and goes back, almost by inertia. It doesn’t make sense, but I’m not fighting it anymore. Since I’ve last posted I’ve bought SPYG and IJR. I’ve also re-purchased PAVE, ROBO, and SOXX after the first dip when Israel launched its missles. What could keep the market down is escalation, which I expect. Since Iran bombed a hospital in Israel, I expect escalation. If it happens tomorrow, who knows, but this thing can spiral and affect the Strait of Hormuz (which a quarter of the world’s oil flows through). So I’m basically trying to predict an escalation. I think something will happen and people will want to keep their money in their pockets by the end of day Friday (because the weekend may have shit and nobody can trade)
By the way, I traded some options recently. Specifically for AAPL, which I bought a put at $195 expiring 06/27 and a call at $210 expiring 06/17/2026. I want to buy AAPL as it’s recent fumbles have driven the stock to below $200. So I’m hoping that the stock ends below $195 by the end of next week.
✅ Review from Yesterday
None made.