Another Friday, another war
🌍 Macro & Market News
Iran continued to lob missles at Israel, despite Trump’s invocation to make a decision on entering within two weeks. They show no sign of slowing down, pointing to Israel’s pre-emptive attack. European leaders attempted to negotiate a cease fire but that went to no avail. And it was a shouting match in the UN.
📊 Portfolio Impact
Overall the portfolio grew 0.26%. This was largely driven by my AAPL options. AAPL’s stock price increased a few percentage points, which grew the call’s value by 11.4%. The put option price went down (about 65%). I’m further away from getting my AAPL shares at the price I wanted, but closer to buying them at a price I’ll eventually want - if that made sense. All of the growth ETFs ended the week down, between -0.11% (VIG) and -1.11% (ROBO). All of the US Infra and Industrial ETFs ended the week down as well. India was mixed, with INDA up +0.2% but SMIN down -1.28%. Everything else down, including ICLN. Short-term treasuries (VGSH) and consumer stples (XLP) ended up, with GLD and IHF down. I am no where near my exit or re-evaluation triggers.
📈 Predictions for 2025-06-23
I think the market will begin negative, due to weekend bullshit, but end positive as people normalizes the violence.
✅ Review from Yesterday
This is what I predicted yesterday: “Equities will drop due to the fighting, which seems to be escalating. Oil will go up, which I suppose will help my energy ETFs (IXC and maybe ICLN?). I think INDA and SMIN will go down as Trump doesn’t seem to be eager to close a trade deal. Gold should go up, which will help GLD. I’m guessing yields will stay stable, so not much change in BND (unless Trump goes to war)… I think something will happen and people will want to keep their money in their pockets by the end of day Friday (because the weekend may have shit and nobody can trade)”
I was correct that the market ended down by the end of the day. I was correct that IXC ended up (but wrong about ICLN though I did say “maybe”). INDA ended up but SMIN was down. GLD was mostly flat and BND ended up.
In the end, I was more right than wrong. However, AAPL ended quite up (above $201) despite the rest of the market.