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🌍 Macro & Market News

Iran and Israel reached an apparent cease fire (both claim victory). And as it turned out, the bombing blew up, like, the doors only. The market had helluva day, with the S&P up 1.11%, NASDAQ up 1.43%, and the Dow up 1.19%. The slid down oil prices (and Gold) as money poured back into equities.

There has been some rumors that Apple is looking to possibly purchase Perplexity in order to catch up on AI. Note: Apple was one of the few stocks down in the market today.

One other bit of interesting news: Shares of US Home Sellers at Risk of Taking a Loss Increases. So, finally, it seems like home prices are beginning to come down.

What stood out to me is the classic Trump playbook: Create some controversy, let it simmer for a few days, and then “reverse” it. It’s just an easy way to buy dips.

📊 Portfolio Impact

My portfolio grew by +0.54% today, with particularly large moves in semiconductors (SOXX) at +3.79% and emerging markets (EEM) at +2.59%. Approxiately 23% of my portfolio is within US Large Cap equity, which did very well today.

As mentioned before, AAPL was one of the few stocks that fell today. I am not confident it will end up below the $195 that I placed my cash-secured put in. I need to decide if I’ll try it again at the end of the week, or whether I should just outright purchase the stock.

I have also considered purchasing more GLD, since it’s down to like $305.

📈 Predictions for 2025-06-25

I think news that Iran’s nuclear program was only disrupted for “months” will possibly reverse some of the flow of equities back into gold and oil, given that it may beg the question: “If nothing got accomplished, then will the cease fire hold?”

AAPL I anticipate may decline (until news of some M&A). I think AAPL’s trend will be negative until it makes some move, as the market is very clearly seeing it is not making money in AI while everyone else is.

✅ Review from Yesterday

No predictions from yesterday, but looking at my Friday prediction: I predicted Monday would be negative to start and then end up positive. I don’t think I was right, except for news of the ceasefire in the later evening (PST).